ISSN 2466-4677; e-ISSN 2466-4847
Journal Menu
Archive
Last Edition
Projecting energy demand and ghg reduction with electric vehicle adoption in nepal
Authors:
Ajay Kumar Jha1,2
, Hari Bahadur Darlami1
, Nawraj Bhattarai1
, Subir Karn2
,
Ganesh Neupane2
1Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Pulchowk Campus, Institute of Engineering,
Tribhuvan University, Nepal
2Center for Pollution Studies, Institute of Engineering, Tribhuvan University, Nepal
Received: 20 July 2025
Revised: 30 August 2025
Accepted: 17 September 2025
Published: 30 September 2025
Abstract:
Nepal has been rapidly adopting electric vehicles (EVs) to achieve its long- term strategy for net-zero emissions; however, the transportation sector still heavily relies on imported fossil fuels. This study uses a sample survey to develop the baseline of energy consumption in the transportation sector and accordingly forecasts energy and emissions in the transportation sector using a macroeconomic model. In this study, the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) modelling tool is used to forecast energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) in the transportation sector of Nepal. Based on historical energy use trends in the sector and the Government of Nepal‘s policies, three scenarios were developed: Business as Usual (BAU), Sustainable Development (SD), and Net-Zero Emission (NZE). In the base year, i.e. 2022, the energy consumption in the transportation sector amounts to 64.92 PJ. The BAU scenario, based on the historical energy consumption pattern, projects an increase in overall energy demand to 92.41 PJ by 2030 and 180.46 PJ by 2045, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.55%. The electricity consumption in the transportation fuel is expected to rise from 0.07 PJ in 2022 to 0.64 PJ by 2045, while GHGs are projected to increase to 11.39 mMTCO2eq by 2045. Similarly, in the SD scenario, based on the targets of the second nationally determined contribution (NDC), energy demand is projected to reach 68.35 PJ by 2030 and 106.94 PJ by 2045, with electricity penetration increasing at a CAGR of 26.68% and GHGs amounting to 6.55 mMTCO2eq by 2045. The NZE scenario anticipates energy demand peaking at 70.27 PJ by 2030 before declining to 36.94 PJ by 2045, with electricity demand growing at a CAGR of 31.12%. GHGs are projected to reach 4.41 mMTCO2eq by 2030 and achieve NZE by 2045.
Keywords:
Energy demand, Electric vehicle, Net-zero emission, Energy forecasting, Greenhouse gas emission
References:
[1] N.C. Onat, M. Kucukvar, O. Tatari, Conventional, hybrid, plug-in hybrid or electric vehicles? State-based comparative carbon and energy footprint analysis in the United States. Applied Energy, 150, 2015: 36–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.04.001
[2] B. Dudic, N.C. Bao, H.X. Thinh, D.V. Duc, A. Ašonja, Applying Probability Method for Battery Electric Vehicle Selection. 2025 24th International Symposium INFOTEH-JAHORINA (INFOTEH), East Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2025, pp.1-5. https://doi.org/10.1109/INFOTEH64129.2025.10959268
[3] Afifa, K. Arshad, N. Hussain, M.H. Ashraf, M.Z. Saleem, Air pollution and climate change as grand challenges to sustainability. Science of the Total Environment, 928, 2024: 172370.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172370
[4] D. Marinkovic, G. Dezso, S. Milojevic, Application of machine learning during maintenance and exploitation of electric vehicles. Advance Engineering Letters, 3(3), 2024: 132-140.
https://doi.org/10.46793/adeletters.2024.3.3.5
[5] Economic Survey 2024. Ministry of Finance, Government of Nepal, 2024.
https://mof.gov.np/content/281/economic-survey-2023-24/ (Accessed: 12 August 2024)
[6] Nepal’s Long-term Strategy for Net-zero Emissions. Government of Nepal, 2021.
https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/NepalLTLEDS.pdf (Accessed: 10 March 2023)
[7] The Sixteenth Plan. National Planning Commission, Government of Nepal, 2024.
https://npc.gov.np/content/6462/the-sixteenth-plan–fical-year-2024-25-2028-29-/ (Accessed: 18 July 2025)
[8] Electricity Development Roadmap 2081. Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation, Government of Nepal, 2025.
[9] S. Rajbhandari, S.L. Shrestha, R. Bhandari, A.K. Jha, H.B. Darlami, Contribution to the net-zero emissions target from the transport sector through electric mobility—A case of Kathmandu Valley. Sustainability, 16(3), 2024: 1211. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16031211
[10] Energy Sector Synopsis Report 2023. Water and Energy Commission Secretariat (WECS), Government of Nepal, 2023. http://wecs.gov.np/source/Energy%20Synopsis%20Report%2C%202023.pdf (Accessed: 15 August 2024)
[11] Energy Sector Synopsis Report 2021/2022. Water and Energy Commission Secretariat (WECS), Government of Nepal, 2022.
http://wecs.gov.np/source/Energy%20Sector%20Synopsis%20Report%2C%202022.pdf (Accessed: 15 August 2024)
[12] K. Gautam, A. Nakarmi, S. Shakya, Future Energy Supply Possibilities and their Implications on Nepal’s Energy Security. Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment, 42(03), 2023: 405-430. https://doi.org/10.13052/spee1048-5236.4231
[13] S.R. Shakya, Economy-wide Implications of Low Carbon Electricity Based Mass Transport in Nepal. Journal of the Institute of Engineering, 9(1), 2014: 142-165. https://doi.org/10.3126/jie.v9i1.10679
[14] K.P. Ghimire, S.R. Shrestha, Estimating vehicular emission in Kathmandu valley, Nepal. International Journal of Environment, 3(4), 2014: 133–146. https://doi.org/10.3126/ije.v3i4.11742
[15] I. Bajracharya, N. Bhattarai, Road Transportation Energy Demand and Environmental Emission: A Case of Kathmandu Valley. Hydro Nepal Journal of Water, Energy and Environment, 18, 2016: 30-40.
https://doi.org/10.3126/hn.v18i0.14641
[16] S.R. Shrestha, N.T.K. Oanh, Q. Xu, M. Rupakheti, M.G. Lawrence, Analysis of the vehicle fleet in the Kathmandu Valley for estimation of environment and climate co-benefits of technology intrusions. Atmospheric Environment, 81, 2013: 579-590. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.09.050
[17] R.M. Shrestha, S. Rajbhandari, Energy and environmental implications of carbon emission reduction targets: Case of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Energy Policy, 38(9), 2010: 4818-4827.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.11.088
[18] S. Dhakal, Implications of transportation policies on energy and environment in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Energy Policy, 31(14), 2003: 1493-1507. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-4215(02)00205-7
[19] Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Government of Nepal, 2020.
https://climate.mohp.gov.np/attachments/article/167/Second%20Nationally%20Determined%20Contribution%20(NDC)%20-%202020.pdf (Accessed: 15 August 2024)
[20] S. Malla, Assessment of mobility and its impact on energy use and air pollution in Nepal. Energy, 69, 2014: 485-496. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.03.041
[21] I.J. Lu, C. Lewis, S.J. Lin, The forecast of motor vehicle, energy demand and CO2 emission from Taiwan’s road transportation sector. Energy Policy, 37(8), 2009: 2952-2961.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.03.039
[22] D. Akay, M. Atak, Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of Turkey. Energy, 32(9), 2007: 1670-1675. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2006.11.014
[23] T. Puksec, G. Krajacic, Z. Lulic, B.V. Mathiesen, N. Duic, Forecasting long-term energy demand of Croatian transport sector. Energy, 57, 2013: 169-176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.04.071
[24] A.M. Nakarmi, T. Mishra, R. Banerjee, Integrated MAED–MARKAL-based analysis of future energy scenarios of Nepal. International Journal for Sustainable Energy, 35(10), 2016: 968-981.
https://doi.org/10.1080/14786451.2014.966712
[25] S. Pokharel, An econometric analysis of energy consumption in Nepal. Energy Policy, 35(1), 2007: 350-361. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2005.11.004
[26] A.M. Nakarmi, B. Sharma, U.S. Rajbhandari, A. Prajapati, C.S. Malley, J.C.I. Kuylenstierna, H.W. Vallack, D.K.H.A. Panday, Mitigating the impacts of air pollutants in Nepal and climate co-benefits: a scenario-based approach. Air Quality, Atmosphere and Health, 13(3), 2020: 361-370. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-020-00799-6
[27] M. Azam, J. Othman, R.A. Begum, S.M.S. Abdullah, N.G.M. Nor, Energy consumption and emission projection for the road transport sector in Malaysia: an application of the LEAP model. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 18, 2016: 1027-1047. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-015-9684-4
[28] A. Pandey, Climate resilient pathway for developing nations: case study of electric vehicle market in Nepal, Master thesis. Jyväskylä University School of Business and Economics, Finland, 2019.
[29] B. Mali, A. Shrestha, A. Chapagain, R. Bishwokarma, P. Kumar, F. Gonzalez-Longatt, Challenges in the penetration of electric vehicles in developing countries with a focus on Nepal. Renewable Energy Focus, 40, 2022: 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ref.2021.11.003
[30] T.N. Bhattarai, S. Ghimire, B. Mainali, S. Gorjian, H. Treichel, S.R. Paudel, Applications of smart grid technology in Nepal: status, challenges, and opportunities. Environment Science and Pollution Research, 30, 2023: 25452-25476. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-19084-3
[31] M. Adhikari, L.P. Ghimire, Y. Kim, P. Aryal, S.B. Khadka, Identification and analysis of barriers against electric vehicle use. Sustainability, 12(12), 2020: 4850. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12124850
[32] L.P. Ghimire, Y. Kim, N.R. Dhakal, Which Policies and Factors Drive Electric Vehicle Use in Nepal? Energies, 16(21), 2023: 7428. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16217428
[33] Economic Survey 2022/2023, Economic Survey 2024. Ministry of Finance, Government of Nepal, 2023. https://mof.gov.np/content/211/economic-survey–english-version–2022-23/ (Accessed: 12 August 2024)
[34] D. Xia, Z. Wu, Y. Zou, R. Chen, S. Lou, Developing a bottom-up approach to assess energy challenges in urban residential buildings of China. Frontiers of Architectural Research, 2025.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foar.2025.03.006
[35] National Population and Housing Census 2021: National Report. National Statistics Office, Kathmandu, Nepal, 2023. https://censusnepal.cbs.gov.np/results/files/result-folder/National%20Report_English.pdf (Accessed: 15 August 2024)
[36] M. Shahid, A. Ali, S.A. Qadir, M.T. Islam, A. AlZahrani, Electricity Demand Modelling Analysis of Saudi Arabia for Sustainable Development: An Application of LEAP Framework. Transportation Research Procedia, 84, 2025: 323-330. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2025.03.079
[37] N.S. Ouedraogo, Modeling sustainable long-term electricity supply-demand in Africa. Applied Energy, 190, 2017: 1074-1067. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.12.162
[38] C. Heaps, Energy Planning and Policy Analysis – LEAP. SEI US, Sweden.
https://appliedsciencecommons.net/artifacts/1357677/energy-planning-and-policy-analysis/1970912/ (Accessed: 17 August 2024)
[39] Handbook of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Implementation. Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA), Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC) and the Department of Heavy Industry (DHI), India, 2024.
https://www.niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2021-08/HandbookforEVChargingInfrastructureImplementation081221.pdf (Accessed: 15 August 2024)
© 2025 by the authors. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC 4.0)
Volume 10
Number 3
September 2025
Last Edition
Volume 10
Number 3
September 2025
How to Cite
A.K. Jha, H.B. Darlami, N. Bhattarai, S. Karn, G. Neupane, Projecting Energy Demand and GHG Reduction With Electric Vehicle Adoption in Nepal. Applied Engineering Letters, 10(3), 2025: 160-170.
https://doi.org/10.46793/aeletters.2025.10.3.4
More Citation Formats
Using lean manufacturing to improve process efficiency in a fabrication company
Authors:
Andra Maria Popa1
, Kapil Gupta1
1University of Johannesburg, Mechanical and Industrial Engineering Technology, Johannesburg, South Africa
Received: 29 June 2024
Revised: 20 September 2024
Accepted: 26 September 2024
Published: 30 September 2024
Abstract:
This article presents a case study on improving process efficiency in a mining equipment part fabrication company. The company was facing issues concerning communication, organisation, and workflow processes. This study investigated that ineffective communication among departments was the major weakness which was responsible for the long lead or idle time. This lead time was a waste that affected the company’s productivity. A great amount of time was spent on non-value-added processes. The Kanban Centralised Communication System was implemented. Time study and value stream mapping were also used. A significant improvement in process efficiency from 34% to 85% was achieved by reducing lead time from 4200 minutes to 1680 minutes after streamlining the communication in the company using Kanban.
Keywords:
Lean manufacturing, Kanban, Optimization, Process efficiency, Production lead time, Value stream mapping
References:
[1] A. Belhadi, F.E. Touriki, S. Elfezazi, Evaluation of critical success factors (CSFs) to implement Lean implementation in SMES using AHP: A case study. International Journal of Lean Six Sigma, 10(3), 2019: 803-829. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJLSS-12-2016-0078
[2] K.S. Minh, S. Zailani, M. Iranmanesh, S. Heidari, Do lean manufacturing practices have a negative impact on job satisfaction. International Journal of Lean Six Sigma, 10(1), 2019: 257-274. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJLSS-11-2016-0072
[3] K. Das, M. Dixon, Lean manufacturing and service. CRC Press, Boca Raton, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781003121688
[4] S. Gupta, P. Chanda, A case study concerning the 5S Lean technique in a scientific equipment manufacturing company. Grey Systems: Theory and Application, 10(3), 2020:339-357. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-01-2020-0004
[5] J.P. Davim, Progress in Lean Manufacturing. Springer Cham, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-73648-8
[6] L. Dubey, K. Gupta, Lean manufacturing based space utilization and motion waste reduction for efficiency enhancement in a machining shop: A case study. Applied Engineering Letters, 8(3), 2023: 121-130. https://doi.org/10.18485/aeletters.2023.8.3.4
[7] Y. Shi, X. Wang, X. Zhu, Lean manufacturing and productivity changes: the moderating role of R&D. International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management, 69(1), 2019:169-191. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJPPM-03-2018-0117
[8] S. Sahoo, S. Yadav, Lean implementation in small- and medium-sized enterprise. Benchmarking: An International Journal, 25(4), 2018: 1121-1147. https://doi.org/10.1108/BIJ-02-2017-0033
[9] S. Caceres-Gelvez, M.D. Arango-Serna, J.A. Zapata-Cortes, Evaluating the performance of a cellular manufacturing system proposal for sewing department of a sportswear manufacturing company: A simulation approach. Journal of Applied Research and Technology, 20(1), 2022: 68-83. https://doi.org/10.22201/icat.24486736e.2022.20.1.1335
[10] H.H. Berhe, Application of Kaizen philosophy for enhancing manufacturing industries’ performance: exploratory study of Ethiopian chemical industries. International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, 39(1),2022: 204-235. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJQRM-09-2020-0328
[11] C. Hemalatha, K. Sankaranarayanasamy, N. Durairaaj, Lean and agile manufacturing for work-in-process (WIP) control. Materials Today Proceedings, 46(20), 2021: 10334-10338. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matpr.2020.12.473
[12] J. Singh, H. Singh, A. Singh, J. Singh, Managing industrial operations by Lean thinking using value stream mapping and six sigma in manufacturing unit. Management Decision, 58(6), 2019: 1118-1148. https://doi.org/10.1108/MD-04-2017-0332
[13] C. Veres, L. Marian, M.S. Moica, K. Al-Akel, Case study concerning 5S method impact in an automotive company. Procedia Manufacturing, 22, 2018: 900-905. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.promfg.2018.03.127
[14] J.C-C. Chen, C.-Y. Cheng, Solving social loafing phenomenon through Lean-Kanban: A case study in non-profit organization. Journal of Organizational Change Management, 31(5), 2017: 984-1000. https://doi.org/10.1108/JOCM-12-2016-0299
[15] T. Bandoophanit, S. Pumprasert, The paradoxes of just-in-time system: an abductive analysis of a public food manufacturing and exporting company in Thailand. Management Research Review, 45(8), 2022: 1019-1043 https://doi.org/10.1108/MRR-04-2021-0262
[16] S. Gawande, J.S. Karajgikar, Implementation of Kanban, a Lean tool, In Switchgear Manufacturing Industry – A Case Study. Proceedings of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, July 26-27, 2018, Paris, France, 2335-2348.
[17] M.A. Habib, R. Rizvan, S. Ahmed, Implementing Lean manufacturing for improvement of operational performance in a labeling and packaging plant: A case study in Bangladesh. Results in Engineering, 17, 2023:100818. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2022.100818
[18] A.K. Das, M.C. Das, Productivity improvement using different Lean approaches in small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Management Science Letters, 13, 2023: 51-64. https://doi.org/10.5267/j.msl.2022.9.002
[19] P.A. Marques, D. Jorge, J. Reis, Using Lean to Improve Operational Performance in a Retail Store and E-Commerce Service: A Portuguese Case Study. Sustainability, 14(10), 2022: 5913. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14105913
[20] F. Khair, M. A. S. Putra, I. Rizkia, Improvement and analysis of aircraft maintenance flow process using Lean manufacturing, PDCA, PICA, and VSM for sustainable operation system. IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1324, 2024: 012071. https://doi.org/10.1088/17551315/1324/1/012071
[21] I. Rizkya, K. Syahputri, R.M. Sari, D.S. Situmorang, Lean Manufacturing: Waste Analysis in Crude Palm Oil Process. IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering, 851, 2020: 012058. https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/851/1/012058
[22] A. Pradeep, K. Balaji, Reduction of lead time in an automobile rubber component manufacturing process through value stream mapping. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part E: Journal of Process Mechanical Engineering, 236(6), 2022:2470-2479. https://doi.org/10.1177/09544089221094094
[23] D. Cabezas, I. Muelle, E. Avalos-Ortecho, Implementation of Lean Manufacturing to Increase the Machine’s Availability of a Metalworking Company. 7 th North American International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, June 12-14, 2022, Orlando, Florida, USA.
[24] W. Kosasih, I.K. Sriwana, E.C. Sari, C.O. Doaly, Applying value stream mapping tools and kanban system for waste identification and reduction (case study: a basic chemical company). IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering, 528, 2019: 012050. https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/528/1/012050
[25] B.S. Patel, M. Sambasivan, R. Panimalar, R. Krishna, A relationship analysis of drivers and barriers of Lean manufacturing. The TQM Journal, 34(5), 2022: 845-876. https://doi.org/10.1108/TQM-12-2020-0296
© 2024 by the author. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC 4.0)
Volume 10
Number 3
September 2025
Last Edition
Volume 10
Number 3
September 2025
How to Cite
V.H. Quan, Research and Optimization of Sport Utility Vehicle Aerodynamic Design. Applied Engineering Letters, 9(2), 2024: 105-115.
https://doi.org/10.46793/aeletters.2024.9.2.5
More Citation Formats
Quan, V.H. (2024). Research and Optimization of Sport Utility Vehicle Aerodynamic Design. Applied Engineering Letters, 9(2), 105-115.
https://doi.org/10.46793/aeletters.2024.9.2.5
Quan, Vu Hai, “Research and Optimization of Sport Utility Vehicle Aerodynamic Design.“ Applied Engineering Letters, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 2024, 105-115.
https://doi.org/10.46793/aeletters.2024.9.2.5
Quan, Vu Hai, 2024. “Research and Optimization of Sport Utility Vehicle Aerodynamic Design.“ Applied Engineering Letters, 9 (2):105-115.
https://doi.org/10.46793/aeletters.2024.9.2.5
Quan, V.H. (2024). Research and Optimization of Sport Utility Vehicle Aerodynamic Design. Applied Engineering Letters, 9(2), pp. 105-115.
doi: 10.46793/aeletters.2024.9.2.5.